Early days yet in the pump up of gas prices, still this brings a smirky smile…

Making predictions makes me queasy because, rather predictably, I'm almost always wrong. That's why I'm fascinated by people who not only can't resist making predictions but also can't resist making them in enduring materials. Take, for example, this from a January 2005 column by Ben Lieberman in Human Events Online.

[T]he federal Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released a preliminary version of its Annual Energy Outlook 2005, and it paints a surprisingly optimistic picture for the decades ahead.

With regard to petroleum, EIA acknowledges that global demand will remain strong, especially with China's growing need for motor fuels unlikely to subside. Nonetheless, the report does not predict runaway prices. Demand may be increasing, but EIA believes that the global supply can expand to meet it. Under one set of assumptions, EIA projects that the inflation-adjusted price "rises slowly to $30.31 per barrel in 2025." Under another set of assumptions, the price reaches $35 per barrel by 2025 -- still less than the current price and in line with the average over the last few years. If true, then the inflation-adjusted price at the pumps should stay below $2.00 per gallon for a long time.

For extra amusement: The title of the column is "America Is Not Facing an Unavoidable Energy Shortage."